The Deluge, page 29
“He would always say I should approach my faith and my relationship with Allah on my own terms and doing it any other way would not be keeping true to myself. Then we started praying together. He even read the Qur’an.”
“Peter? Read the Qur’an? And prays with you?”
“Don’t say it like that. He’s different than you think, Ash.”
“I’m only attempting to assimilate new information.”
While staying the weekend in the guest room of my condominium, Haniya met up with a few college friends while Peter and I attended a Wizards game, where he filled my ear with his plans to use proprietary models I’d created for him to start a hedge fund. This was indeed news, as that line of financial speculation was not for the amateur, but he claimed he had multiple investors and a “major, boffo, super-god of the PR world” on board. On their last night, we ate a barbecue dinner in Adams Morgan. While Peter kept halal and ate chicken, Haniya had a taste for the food our parents would never let us eat growing up and greedily sucked the meat off a rack of ribs. Our talk eventually turned to the legislation. She asked: “Can I take a look at what you’re proposing?”
After becoming curious about my work, Haniya wrote her dissertation on the intersection of economics and democratic systems in a changing climatic regime. She now works at the Eunice N. Foote Institute, a think tank dedicated to climate policy. Similar to Dr. Pietrus, she harbors great skepticism that any policy would sufficiently address greenhouse gas emissions other than governments putting a heavy thumb on market forces. I called up the white paper on my phone, and while she skimmed with her thumb and snacked on ribs with the other hand, Peter made his feelings known:
“Problem is we gotta think of this as an engineering problem, not a social one. Why can’t we fix poverty? Why can’t we fix our schools? Because those shits are tough-as-balls social problems with complex moving parts. But shoot a guy to fucking Mars? Hell, that’s just getting the math right. So why don’t we just pump some volcano dust into the air like all these scientists say and chill the planet out? Snowpiercer that shit, bro.”
“It’s certainly a proposal that gets more serious attention with each passing year.”
“Oh Christ, look at your fucking face, dude. What’s the problem?”
“Almost too many to name. Also, if I recall, Snowpiercer was a disaster narrative.”
“What disaster? Four-fifths of that train was dope! You heard Ed Harris.”
In due time, Haniya finished scanning the white paper. She gave me two pumps of her dark eyebrows.
I noted: “You disapprove.”
“No, look, I support anything at this point. But in the past five years alone IT infrastructure, like data centers storing VR worldes, has eaten the gains of the IRA. Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization. That’s why we liked the shock collar or even Randall’s Green Trident. Price signals got a bad name because they were often badly designed, but without a stick, these companies can keep finding ways to bring their carbon to market. They win by stalling. Red states erect non-economic barriers, which has led to this uneven buildout of clean energy, and even as we bring down fossil fuel use, they just get cheaper, which keeps the market healthy. Carbon will always be useful, so unless you make it expensive or illegal to burn, those interests will find a way to do so.” Peter was staring at her with his mouth slightly agape. Haniya looked at him: “What? Stop being weird.”
“Mama, you’re so fucking sexy and beautiful, I want to put my fist through a wall.”
I slipped my phone back into my pocket. Once back at my condominium, Haniya and Peter drank heavily, and when I left them in my living room to go to bed, they were kissing quietly on the couch. In my bedroom, I put in earbuds and listened to the sound of rain. I thought about how there will always be something about me that finds happiness too painful.
* * *
Which brings me to my final conversation regarding the white paper. On Saturday, January 20, while the rest of Washington streamed to the Capitol to witness the swearing in of Mary Randall as president, I took the train north. Dr. Pietrus had agreed to meet me halfway between New Haven and D.C., and I arranged for a small conference room at a Hilton hotel. A concierge showed me to the secure space where a pitcher of ice water, two glasses, two legal pads, and two Hilton pens were arranged in flawless symmetry. I passed the time by exchanging text messages with Seth. We were in the middle of a minor disagreement because I hadn’t invited him to meet my sister and Peter when they were in town.
I texted: I’m not comfortable with you meeting them yet. You’ll simply have to accept that.
Seth replied: I feel like you’re not comfortable with anything until someone forces you to be comfortable with it.
Haniya had expressed a similar sentiment before she left when she attempted to broach the topic of our mother: “I don’t think you get how much she’s changed. Since Papa died, it’s been one step after another. She didn’t blink when she met Pete. She has a new best friend at the country club who’s Black. Black, Ash. I remember back when she used to tell us that the races don’t belong mixing.”
“The issue is not that this person in my life is white, Hani.”
That single, terrifying sentence was as close as I’d ever come to admitting to my sister what I’m sure she’d already long known.
“I’m just saying, Ash, you have to give people the chance to not disappoint you.”
By the time Dr. Pietrus arrived, forty minutes late, I was so lost in thought on these personal issues that his entrance was akin to a plate shattering on the floor.
“I apologize,” he said without a hint of apology. “I met my daughter in New York for brunch and it was— You know, it was a whole thing.”
He slid into his chair and dispensed water into his glass. He wore a rumpled suit, and I was reminded that he was constantly in a state of dishevelment. His skin was dry and pallid, his lips chapped and peeling. He looked ten years older than he should and reeked of cigarettes. While searching the pockets of his jacket and pants, he muttered the question:
“You don’t have kids, do you?”
“No.”
“They get old enough so you can’t just give them a time-out or take away their doll. And they don’t listen to you anymore. You try to give them advice, but it’s useless.” He removed a tablet from his breast pocket and slid his finger across the screen to bring up his notes. He took the stylus and scrawled something, crossing his legs tight and pinching his lips. “I gotta say, it’s some pretty weak tea bullshit of Jane to send you. I’m insulted she didn’t at least come begging on her own.”
“What do you mean?”
“Oh, you’ve both drank the Kool-Aid. You’re political totems now.”
“That’s not how we see it.”
“Then get your eyesight checked.”
Dr. Pietrus has never been accused of tact. One learns not to take too much offense at his brusque demeanor, but in my opinion, he’s been politicized into a rather rabid paranoia. I told him:
“I would think you’d be happy that the Randall administration views climate policy as its top priority and has brought in respected scientists to shape legislation.”
“Hasan, don’t be a dimwit. You won’t have a fingerprint on this thing by the time it gets through. If it gets through.”
“We’re modeling the legislation in NOAA’s IAM. We’ll be able to present the politicians with firm evidence of how the legislation will affect processes.”
“Right. Because politicians are always interested in sober evidence. Congress is just another neon-lit whorehouse.” He set his tablet down, leaned back, and laced his fingers over his small belly. His shirt had a stain near the third button and another on his jacket. “I was thinking on the ride down here, part of the problem is that you guys come from the world of modeling. That’s fine. I’ve done some myself. But it’s all hypothetical to you. The models haven’t kept pace with the chaos we’re observing. The modeling community is always lagging behind the observed trends. And that’s not to say you haven’t done impressive stuff. You get a computer with ten petaflops and grid spacing at six to ten kilometers, and you’ll turn some heads. But it doesn’t matter outside of what’s actually happening. You’re playing video games, boss. Complex systems with multiple processes and feedbacks will always exhibit emergent behavior that will surprise you. Too many dynamical pathways linking cause and effect, which is why our hypotheses that get encouraged by the models tend to break down in the real world.”
“Perhaps. But in your public advocacy, you display certainty. I don’t believe in certainty. It makes for bad science.”
“You’ve been giving denialists and slow-walkers ammunition for years, Hasan. And speaking of sloppy science, your models have been a disaster when it comes to soil respiration. Shifts in ecosystems are tilting to a net carbon loss.”
“The models still don’t agree on that.”
“Fuck the models. You saw the numbers coming in from Greenland this summer. Surface melting and ocean warming at the intermediate depths is now in overdrive. Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets are frying. Hell, the West Antarctic sheet alone, once that melts—global civilization is a complex entity extremely vulnerable to disruption. This isn’t a pissant cold virus with a mortality rate a tick higher, this is nearly a million cubic miles of sea and glacier ice that’ll spill. Even mild regional effects could have dire consequences for humanity’s survival, and you’re sitting there with all the concern of a happy baby in a fresh diaper.”
“That’s not the matter at hand, Tony. If industrial chemists had used bromine instead of chlorine in the development of CFCs, it would have eradicated the ozone layer within a few decades, probably leading to the collapse of most societies. It’s only an accident of economies of scale that we avoided this. We do what we can with the information we have available. I’ll remind you that the job of a scientist is to view the world empirically, even if the results are in occasional disagreement with our ideological preferences.”
He smirked, nodding his head as if he’d anticipated this line of argument.
“Why am I here? Why did you and Jane make me truck three hours on a train to listen to this beshitted lecture?”
“Jane says the president wants your endorsement of the legislation. Or if you can’t give us that, then at least neutrality.”
“Are you kidding? I’m canceled! I have no say in anything! I lost my book contract, I got shuttled to an emeritus role at Yale. No one’s listening to me.”
“Jane seems to think you are one of the few people with the ability to detonate the policy if you speak out against it. Which, knowing you, I somewhat assume.”
“You see this graffiti the so-called terrorists are putting up? Weathermen or 6Degrees—whatever they’re called? ‘You are not a neutral witness.’ If it’s a bad bill, I’m gonna say so—I promise you that.”
“What would you have us do? If you were in our position?”
Dr. Pietrus laughed darkly at this question. “Are you kidding? I literally wrote the book on this.”
I was growing impatient with him, and the feeling seemed mutual. “Those involved seem to think it’s politically impossible to enact virtually any of your recommendations.”
“And guess what, the biosphere doesn’t give a shit about the craven vicissitudes of the American political system. You’re pushing modest standards, which can all be eviscerated if the administration changes, when we need a two hundred dollar per metric ton tax rising twenty dollars a year, every year, at minimum. We need to phase out coal in the next two years. That means beginning to shut down plants by fiat and have the government nationalize all coal stocks. Preferably we’d buy fifty-one percent stakes in every major carbon producer and unwind them as rapidly as possible. We need to be commissioning five new nuclear reactors a year for the next twenty. Then we need to hammer the shit out of India and China until they’re on board. The bottom line is no one really has any idea how rapidly we can decarbonize the global economy at this point, but we’re going to have to find out.”
It took many years for me to learn how to look people in the eye. Dr. Pietrus now drilled his into mine, and I reverted to a past self and cast my gaze down.
I said: “You have read the white paper then.”
“Oh, I’ve read it.”
“And your assessment.”
“My assessment? You’ve got no carbon price, a toothless set of standards for buildings, vehicles, and the utility sector that, best case, will let business-as-usual roll on another ten years, money to ill-advisedly arm coastal real estate, and on top of it all, a tax cut? No one involved in this legislation appears to understand the gravity of the situation. If we’d enacted this forty years ago, yeah, sure, maybe the economy would have moved toward a less carbon-intensive path. But it’s too late for that. We’re going to be at two degrees by the end of the next decade, on our way to at least four and maybe even six. We need all hands on deck. We need to go to war. And this? This is a joke. So my assessment is that this plan falls under the category of Don’t Even Fucking Bother.”
With that, he stood, buttoned his jacket, and walked out the door.
Conclusion: At the end of all this, I remain optimistic about the chances of passing the legislation outlined in the white paper. The objections registered by Dr. Pietrus, my sister, Seth, and members of the political team—these all serve to underscore the complex nature of the endeavor. There is no legislation that will look ideal to every constituency. However, I agree with Ms. McCowen, who pointed out that a reduction in the income tax will make the bill just palatable enough to sell to the key moderate members of the Republican caucus. Whether Dr. Pietrus supports the bill or not, A Fierce Blue Fire and other environmental groups will be under too much pressure to let this effort fail. The same goes for the administration. I will conclude by sharing the preliminary results from NOAA’s IAM about the modeled effects of the legislation: With IRA subsidies set to expire in 2032, the US is on course for a 44 percent reduction of carbon-equivalent emissions over 2005 levels by 2040. The bill would accelerate that to 57 percent, according to models. Without a carbon tariff, it will have little effect on global emissions and many carbon-intensive industries will relocate to other countries. A range of economic impacts could emerge. The models foresee carbon concentration rising to 550 ppm by midcentury with a range of adverse climatic effects possible, including but not limited to a sea level rise of seven to fifteen feet by 2100.
TRANSCRIPT EXCERPT FROM THE CONVERSATION WITH ALANA AFZEL ON NEW YORK TIMES PODCASTS
Kate Morris Discusses Recent Controversies and Where Climate Legislation Now Stands
March 28, 2029
Alana Afzel Today on The Conversation, we have a special guest, who needs, I’m guessing, very little introduction. From the trenches of the climate crisis, executive director of A Fierce Blue Fire, Kate Morris. Kate, how are you?
Kate Morris Oh, ya know: the Dude abides.
Alana Afzel [Laughter] Okay, I know you’re short on time, so let’s get straight to it. You’re finding yourself in the middle of multiple controversies, but let’s start with the big one. Explain to our listeners what has happened with the House bill, the so-called PRIRA legislation, why FBF nearly revolted, and what just passed the House of Representatives over the weekend.
Kate Morris We threw a f—— fit.
Alana Afzel Yes, explain the fit.
Kate Morris We found ourselves in this bizarre position where our supposed allies were actually proposing something weaker than the Republican president. Democrats have basically convinced themselves that they will lose seats if they vote for any kind of price on carbon.
Alana Afzel You’re specifically talking about the shock collar?
Kate Morris Yeah, that’s right. The Dems want to spend money but they’re nervous about trying to actually keep carbon in the ground. They don’t want to use the best tools because they view those tools as making them politically vulnerable. So, what was being proposed in Congress was middling investments in renewables and frontline communities, but as we’ve seen, that doesn’t get the job done with decarbonization, so we had to make it clear that this was not acceptable.
Alana Afzel You don’t think using regulations and standards can achieve the needed greenhouse gas reductions?
Kate Morris Well, they could if given the chance, and any plan should include strong standards. The problem is Republicans and oilmen drag them into the courts, which can affect implementation. On top of that, the average American worker sees no benefit and has no skin in the game. The shock collar’s rebate checks create a political constituency for decarbonization that will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to dislodge. Then there’s the global element. We’ve f—ed around with these nonbinding international accords like Paris for too long. This plan starts a race to the top, so if China is making high-carbon steel and Sweden is making incredibly efficient low-carbon steel, suddenly the Swedish steel is the cheap stuff. We build the largest economic bloc in the world and lock these countries, including ourselves, into this program of accelerated action. So in one policy, one bill, we can address global emissions, workers, and justice all at once. None of this is a panacea, but it’s the best way of moving faster than f— in an emergency.”
Alana Afzel And that’s the bill that your allies have muscled through in the House.
