Move, page 13
The EU today has a population approximately twice the size of America’s, including about double the number (180 million) of teens and young adults. While America and Europe have diverged in fundamental ways—Americans scorn Europe’s geopolitical weakness while Europeans mock America’s crass inequality—they observe each other closely enough for ideas to spill over. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s push for “democratic socialism” is nothing other than a repackaging of the social democratic welfare state hundreds of millions of Europeans have enjoyed for decades. Meanwhile, from Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matter to Google, Europeans are inspired by America’s unbounded social energy and entrepreneurialism.
But Europe has built-in advantages over America when it comes to reflecting the preferences of youth. Most obviously, while the US has minimum ages to be a member of the House (twenty-five), Senate (thirty), and to be elected President (thirty-five), Europeans face no such restrictions. Far more young people have become mayors, parliamentarians, or even prime ministers than is conceivable in America. Europe also has multi-party political systems rather than America’s rigid duopoly, meaning compromise within coalitions is essential to avoid gridlock. This also means that whereas America’s young politicians are forced into party discipline, Europeans can start new parties such as the Pirate Party, which has been successful across northern and eastern Europe. All of this helps to explain the recent surge of green parties in France and across Europe. In a number of German provinces and in Austria, there are now “black-green” coalitions of conservatives and greens, forcing these seeming extremes to work together on issues such as raising the retirement age, supporting more flexible worker insurance, and promoting clean energy.
These political differences stem from divergent philosophical foundations and lead to very different outcomes for ordinary people. Whereas the American Bill of Rights and Constitution enumerate individuals’ protections from the federal government and states’ purview, European constitutions delineate people’s right to voice and welfare as well as protections from abuse of power. The average European country spends nearly 30 percent of GDP on social services, far higher than America’s 15 percent. Europeans thus enjoy free education and healthcare, while at the same time banks can’t rip them off, tech companies can’t steal their data, and energy companies can’t pollute their soil and water. During the Covid-19 lockdown, European governments ensured that the unemployed received a majority of their wages without having to wait for a meager check in the mail as Americans did. Many firms switched to what Germans call Kurzarbeit, in which all employees work reduced hours to avoid anyone getting fired. Europeans won’t give up on their progressive regulations in the name of higher “competitiveness.”
For Americans, Europe’s social scaffolding must seem utopian: universal medical care, basic income, subsidized college tuition, and savings accounts. European nations also fare much better in education levels, affordable housing, and public transportation, all crucial factors in enabling social mobility.I The Global Peace Index finds that almost all of the top twenty-five safest countries are in Europe (supplemented by Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and Bhutan).
What Europeans are not accustomed to, however, is working in the gigonomy. As a result, like their American counterparts, most have either no savings or barely enough for three months of expenses. But unlike Americans, most Europeans don’t possess credit cards by which to pile on debt. They’re frugal with their debit cards and use mobile banking services such as Revolut or Klarna to slice up and defer payments. Also, more Europeans continue to live at home with their parents, providing a higher degree of basic stability. European millennial life is civilized, but full of ennui.
Europeans have been so accustomed to free tuition, stable employment, and universal benefits that curbs to benefits are met with mass street protests by unions and students. But Europe is also where genuine experiments in lifelong social stability are being rolled out, such as Finland’s life account system that doesn’t tax savings, and Dutch portable pensions managed by the state but funded by employers. European countries not only have shock absorbers for individual workers’ wages, but also provide stronger backing for SMEs rather than large corporations. Even though Europeans pay on average between 40 to 60 percent of their incomes in taxes, their nations occupy the entire top tier in Wharton’s ranking of the best countries in which to run your own business.
Europe doesn’t have innovative tech giants, but it deploys innovations for public benefit. For example, the high-performance and open-source operating system Linux was invented in Finland. Unlike America or China, where corporations or the state control data, Europe is most progressive in personal data protection, allowing pro-citizen data marketplaces to thrive. Coworking too is far older than WeWork. The Belgian coworking pioneer IWG (formerly Regus) began in 1989 in Belgium and is far more widespread than the flashier unicorn WeWork, without the financial chicanery. Europe’s post-Covid recovery plan includes billions of dollars to grow clean energy, IT, and other European champions to assert Europe’s autonomy from both America and China. It’s ironic that Washingtonians speak about a world of two models when the model most of the world wants to emulate is the European one.
One should never bet against America, but one can get very impatient with it. That’s certainly the view of the throngs of Americans who have moved to Europe over the past decade, abandoning America’s excessively creative destruction and the politics of outrage in favor of regulated capitalism and liberty with sensible constraints. Many Americans no longer want to wait for America to become a European-style welfare system—they’re just moving to Europe to get it. Rather than amassing six figures of debt, a rising number of American students are going straight to Europe after high school and doing their full undergraduate degree in English-language programs. And with teacher salaries higher in Europe, ever more English teachers are being lured across the Atlantic as well.
The number of Americans moving to Europe annually has jumped, bringing the total to more than 1 million today. The UK is home to the most American expats, but Germany and France are gaining popularity.II Umpteen websites and blogs have cropped up with self-congratulatory stories of Americans moving on one-way tickets to Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, and a half-dozen other countries, extolling the virtues of European public safety, affordable healthcare, consumer-friendly regulations, and family-friendly employment policies—and providing step-by-step guidance on how to follow in their footsteps. During the nineteenth century, European migrants gave American industry and society a seismic boost in manpower. Could Americans do the same for Europe during the twenty-first?
The rise of Asian-Europeans
Over the past thirty years, there has been a soft competition among Western European nations to attract the best and the brightest from the exodus out of the former Soviet Union (particularly Russia), with Germany and Britain (together with the US and Israel) being the clear winners. But when it comes to Asians, America has garnered the largest share of Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian talent. There are more than twice as many Asian-Americans (just over 20 million) as there are “Asian-Europeans”—which is why that term doesn’t really exist. But the coming years will witness the Asian-European population surge, making it not only a category in its own right but perhaps one that eclipses Asian-Americans in number.
As Eastern Europeans have uprooted themselves en masse to head for Western Europe, their homelands have become fertile ground for migrants from farther east who are also moving west. Keeping the land fertile, however, will require some work: During 2020, droughts forced Poland and Romania to ban grain exports. They and other countries in the region will need to invest much more in new hydro-engineering projects to remain breadbaskets for both east and west. But with funds from the west faltering, more will come from the east—and more farmers and other migrants too.
Romania is becoming a test case of what this might look like. The country has branded itself as a low-cost tech hub with wages as modest as those of India’s IT industry. In fact, the town of Cluj invited Indian software executives and engineers to coach it on how to become a Romanian version of Bangalore. Romania still faces a shortage of about 1 million skilled and unskilled workers—hence its plan to lure that many from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam to work in construction, medicine, tech, and agriculture.3 How many will ever return to Asia?
The Czech Republic is already one of the hottest relocation destinations in Europe, with foreigners making up 10 percent of the country’s workforce. The majority of new arrivals are Russians, Ukrainians, or Americans, who have cemented Prague’s status as a hot study-abroad hub. Already one-quarter of the country’s entire student population are foreigners. As the Czech education system pivots to English, ever more students will come from around the world for an affordable and scenic degree. Furthermore, as with other European societies, Czech fertility levels are abysmally low. While government funding for up to three IVF cycles has had a negligible impact on Czech fertility, it has given rise to a thriving IVF industry catering to cost-conscious would-be parents.
This influx of students and young families helps small and insular European states gain comfort in their openness while filling their labor shortages. It also gives foreigners a toehold in societies far more stable than where they come from.
Given Europe’s low birth rates, it’s ironic that almost all of the top-ranked countries in the world for raising children (based on variables such as female empowerment and child nutrition) are in Europe. With such a large idle housing stock and quality infrastructure, it would be a pity for future generations not to enjoy the benefits of the life Europe has built. Indeed, the only way for European nations to maintain their generous welfare states—even for themselves—is to import new taxpayers who pay into the pot from which they collect.
Only Poland has managed to stabilize its population, mostly by attracting an estimated two hundred thousand neighboring Ukrainians. To reverse brain drain, it has also scrapped its income tax for young workers. Poland and Croatia have become home to some of the hottest e-learning startups, while Ukraine (and until its present unrest, Belarus) has attracted Estonian and Russian investment as a low-cost tech back office. The Belt and Road Initiative has made China one of the largest investors in many Eastern European countries, opening the door to a long-term Asian merchant population as well.
And so begins the soft competition among Eastern European states not to ward off talented foreigners but to attract them. But even as young Russians continue to seek a more liberal life to the west, there aren’t enough Slavic youth left to repopulate Europe—either eastern or western. But farther east lie many hundreds of millions of highly and semi-skilled Asians eager to become Asian-Europeans.
Southern Europe for sale
In January 1968, an earthquake struck Italy’s treasured island of Sicily, claiming more than two hundred lives and leaving more than one hundred thousand homeless. Some towns, such as Poggioreale, were so decimated that Rome commissioned famous architects to design entirely new ones to which survivors were resettled. The mayor of nearby Salemi had another idea: He could attract citizens to come and rebuild his town by effectively giving away homes. Forty years later, in 2008, his successor updated the policy and, in keeping with the country’s new currency, officially launched a scheme to sell abandoned homes for exactly 1 euro.
What started out as a local gimmick has become a nationwide arms race among villages, towns, and mid-size cities to lure new residents—or risk disappearing off the national map. Some offer tax abatements and even 25,000 euros to anyone willing to start a business. Many such measures were rolled out first to the national population—with tepid results. Southern Italy won’t survive as an inhabited region without convincing far more foreigners to make its vacant provinces their new home. With a number of towns in Calabria and Abruzzi Provinces unscathed by Covid, campaigns such as “Operation Beauty,” in the town in Cinquefrondi, have gained momentum as a wide range of Europeans seek safety in emptiness. The Italians want not just individuals and couples but people who will bring yet more relatives and friends in tow: You could recreate your entire social circle in an abandoned Italian town.
Even populous and wealthy regions such as Spain’s Catalonia have taken the cue and launched their own versions of Italy’s schemes. There you can buy an entire village of eighty hectares, with fourteen homes, for 280,000 euros—and become the mayor by default. You own the place, after all. Since hosting the 1992 Summer Olympics, Barcelona has undergone a major renaissance, which combined with its worldly history has made it Spain’s most cosmopolitan city. More recently, however, its overregulated property market—construction costs are too high and tenancy rights too lenient—has scared Spanish developers away. As a result, even prime neighborhoods such as the Barceloneta district, by the city’s scenic port, are in tatters, with aging (or even deceased) owners hoarding decrepit buildings. Why not build affordable and sustainable housing for young workers and talented entrepreneurs?
This wouldn’t be the first time Spain has needed to import hardworking immigrants to fill labor shortages. In the 1990s and 2000s, many young Pakistanis entered the country on temporary permits, over time gravitating toward the seaside climate of Barcelona, where they settled down, started families, and learned to speak both Spanish and some Catalan. Now they diligently run electronics shops and pharmacies, living comfortable working-class lives. During a recent visit, I had only one non-Pakistani taxi driver over the course of an entire week. Barcelona’s Raval neighborhood (just off the famed Las Ramblas boulevard) has become a Gothic Lahore.
Spain continues its haphazard efforts to cobble together its next generation. There are about 2.5 million Latinos in Spain, but it could easily attract more Mexicans or Colombians. As in Germany and Italy, birthright policies are being revised to more easily grant citizenship to those who share the country’s heritage. Citizenship can be acquired after residing in Spain for ten years, and in 2015, a law was passed awarding citizenship to Sephardic Jews (who were expelled from the country in the fifteenth century) on the basis of cultural and historical ties.
Portugal is with good reason one of the more popular destinations for Europeans and others seeking long-term stability. Climate change is expected to have less impact on its freshwater resources, which are abundant in the north around Porto and in the southern region of Algarve. Portugal’s socialist-leaning government has reversed its post-crisis economic decline, boosting public investment in trains and subways and raising wages. It’s also seeking to lure back more than 2 million overseas Portuguese. In the 2000s, down-and-out Portuguese sought work in their thriving former colony of Brazil—now it’s the reverse. During the pandemic lockdown, Portugal gave full rights to all migrants and asylum seekers already in the country, so they could get Covid tests. Others could learn from this brand of progressive socialism.
Europe faces a choice between assimilating migrants or falling off a demographic cliff. As in America, Europe needs unskilled migrants to fix infrastructure, collect trash, care for the elderly, help integrate other foreigners, and countless other functions. Europe depends on Polish plumbers, Romanian farmers, and African sanitation workers. Despite rising unemployment in the UK and a seventy-thousand-worker shortage picking crops, only one hundred Britons showed up in response to a government call to step into farming roles during the Covid lockdown. Societies that don’t accept the necessary number and range of migrants to plug their labor shortages wind up poorer.
Even southern EU members such as Greece, Italy, and Spain have shortages of farmers, kitchen staff, and street cleaners. Rather than firing with machine guns at boats loaded with Syrian asylum seekers, they should figure out how to make the most of them. Refugees from as far as Afghanistan and Nigeria have squatted in empty buildings in Athens, but just as they began looking for work, the Greek government evicted them and corralled them into tent camps where they sit and do nothing. Instead, they should allocate migrants to different provinces and cities based on an assessment of local needs, employment levels, and housing capacity, balancing the load not only to spread the benefits of immigrants but also to avoid listless ghettos.
From Spain to Italy to Bulgaria, southern Europe is a squatter’s paradise, a finders-keepers world of abandoned towns and villages. Its vast tracts of fertile land and fixable housing are practically crying out to be occupied by tens of millions of migrants, who in exchange for a stable new life could revitalize ailing economies. Ultimately, this would give these lands a higher purpose than to be sentimental graveyards. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris offered Italy or Greece $100 million for a depopulated island to repurpose for sheltering Arab refugees. Should an uninhabited island’s sovereignty matter more than its utility?
An assimilation emergency
In the past decade, more than 1 million Arabs from countries such as Syria and Libya and 1 million Africans (mostly from the Congo, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan) have made it into Europe, mostly via Turkey or across the Mediterranean. But while Europe has generally been welcoming toward Slavic and Balkan peoples, it has had much more difficulty absorbing Arabs, Africans, and Muslims in general. Indeed, the bargain holding Europe’s internal borders open is that the Mediterranean routes must be shut.
