Knock-Out Blackjack, page 5
• Certain deck compositions are favorable to the player, while others help the dealer. In particular, a deck that is rich in tens and aces favors the player. This is true for several reasons, among them the fact that blackjacks (which pay a bonus to the player) are more prevalent; the dealer is more likely to bust with a stiff; double down and split plays are more advantageous; and the insurance side bet can become profitable. On the other hand, a deck that is rich in low cards (or poor in tens and aces) favors the dealer.
• With regard to betting, when the deck is favorable the card counter will bet a lot. Conversely, when the deck is unfavorable, the card counter will bet a little or perhaps not play at all.
• While accurate and powerful, traditional balanced card-counting techniques that require a true-count conversion are often difficult to employ without error.
Round 4
* * *
The Unbalanced Knock-Out System
Everything should be as simple as possible, but not more so.
—Albert Einstein
Today’s modern point-count systems are commonly classified according to three main categories: their level, type, and whether or not a side count is required. We touched on these at the end of Chapter 3. Let’s take another look at each.
CLASSIFICATIONS
Level—Level refers to the integer values assigned to the cards themselves. If each card is assigned integer values of either –1, 0, or +1, this is said to be a level-1 count. Similarly, systems employing values between –2 and +2 are level-2 counts, and so forth. As a rule, it’s easier to use a level-1 system than a higher-level system. This is partly because it’s always easier to add and subtract 1 than to add 2 and subtract 3, etc. In addition, the expert card counter looks for card patterns that cancel to zero, which are more common in a level-1 count.
Type—Type refers to whether the card-counting system is balanced or unbalanced. Both balanced and unbalanced systems keep track of a running count (as introduced in Chapter 3), which is an up-to-date cumulative total of all cards already seen. Historically, balanced counts have been more popular and well-studied, because they provide more accurate playing strategies. But balanced counts require additional effort to employ, particularly during the true count conversion.
Even with perfect mental arithmetic, true-count conversion is a source of error, because players must estimate the number of decks remaining to be played. This is typically approximated to the nearest one-half deck, and often leads to a true-count conversion that may be off by about 10%. The use of an unbalanced count eliminates the need for a true-count conversion.
Side Count—Several balanced counts use an additional side count to enhance their power. These are often called “multi-parameter systems.” Particularly because of the uniqueness of the ace, many systems assign it a neutral value in the point count, then count it separately (an “ace side count”. As you can imagine, keeping a separate count of aces (or any other card for that matter) greatly complicates the picture. Instead of keeping one count in your head, you now have to keep two of them. Needless to say, keeping side counts is mentally taxing. Quite often, chips, feet, cigarettes, drinks, or anything else that’s handy are employed to facilitate the task.
Thankfully, we can avoid the worst of these headaches by using the K-O system. The K-O is a single-level single-parameter count. More important, though, is that K-O is unbalanced, which completely eliminates the necessity to convert to a true count. As you’ll see later, K-O also eliminates, or greatly simplifies, most other tasks associated with successful card counting.
Let’s get to the business at hand.
LEARNING THE K-O
CARD-COUNTING VALUES
The first step in any card-counting system is assigning values to the respective cards. The unbalanced Knock-Out system employs the following card-counting values:
The astute reader will immediately notice that there are more “+” than “–” designations. That’s because the sum of the card tags does not equal zero. And that’s why the K-O system is referred to as unbalanced.
Since the count values are restricted to +1, 0, or –1, and each card has only one value associated with it, the K-O system is a true level-1 system. A level-1 system allows for fast counting of a blackjack table full of cards. Combinations of cards that cancel to zero are easy to spot and eliminate from consideration. The suits of the cards are not considered, so a mere glance at a card is sufficient to determine its card-counting value.
To become a proficient card counter, you need to memorize the Knock-Out values of each card. In game conditions, you must be able to recall each Knock-Out value instantly.
LEARNING TO KEEP THE
K-O RUNNING COUNT
To maintain the running count (or “RC”), we continually update it according to the cards that we see played. Based on the previous table, we add 1 for each low card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7), and subtract 1 for each high card (10, jack, queen, king, or ace) that we see. The RC is the important count that we need to remember, even during and in-between hands, and keep updating until the next shuffle.
The running count begins at the IRC. For reasons that will become clear in a moment, after a shuffle, we start with a standard initial running count that conforms with the following equation: 4 – (4 x number of decks). We adopt the term “standard” here as a reference point for discussion; later we will discuss ways to customize the K-O system (for example, to avoid the use of negative numbers).
Applying our equation, we start with a standard IRC of 0 for a single-deck game, IRC = 4 – (4 x 1 deck). For a double deck, it’s 4 – (4 x 2) for an IRC of –4. For a 6-deck shoe, 4 – (4 x 6) equals a standard IRC of –20. The lowest standard IRC you will begin with is –28 for an 8-deck shoe game.
By starting with an IRC equal to 4 – (4 x number of decks), we will always end with a count of +4 after all the cards in a pack have been counted. Because of the unbalanced point values, each deck has a net count of +4, so the net count of the entire pack will exactly cancel out the “4 x number of decks” initially subtracted and leave us with +4 as the sum.
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Let’s look at a 2-deck game as an example. The IRC for a double decker is 4 – (4 x 2) = –4. As we count through the deck, the running count will generally rise from the IRC of –4 toward the final count, which will be +4 after all cards are counted. In practice, the running count will jump around on its journey, sometimes dipping downward below –4 and at other times cresting above +4. But at the end, it must equal +4 if we’ve counted correctly.
Figure 4 shows what a representative running count distribution might look like in the 2-deck game. We’ll soon see that these statistical variations are what we, as counters, will take advantage of while playing.
The average running count behaves quite differently. In this case, the assumption is that we’ve played a great many hands, rendering the statistical variations negligible. On average, we expect the running count to rise linearly with the number of decks (total cards) already played, such that the rate of increase is +4 per deck.
FOUR STEPS TO KEEPING THE
K-O RUNNING COUNT
To achieve proficiency at maintaining the running count, we recommend the following steps.
1. Memorize the Knock-Out card-counting value associated with each card.
Your recognition of the values of the card tags should be as natural as telling time. It should become ingrained and second nature.
One former professional card counter, a colleague of the author Lawrence Revere some 20 years ago, described it like this: “To this day I can’t get away from card-counting values. When I turn on my computer and it says ‘Windows 95,’ I see the 9 and 5 and still automatically think +2.” (The system he uses is not K-O, and values 5s as +2 and 9s as 0.)
Similarly, you should be able to recall the card-counting values without pausing. It’s important that this step be instantaneous. You should be able to look at a card and instantly recall its value of+1, 0, or –1 without hesitation.
Decks Dealt
Figure 4: A representative journey of the standard running count in a 2-deck game, with the running count plotted vs. the number of cards already played. The depiction is representative only in the sense that it gives a flavor of the magnitude of fluctuations during the course of play. Note the contrast with the average running count, represented by the ascending straight line.
Begin with a deck of shuffled cards. As you turn each card over, recall its Knock-Out value. (Note: You don’t want to recite it aloud, as this could lead to the troublesome habit of mouthing the count.) For example, for a sequence of cards 3, 5, king, 2, 8, queen, you would silently think +1, +1, –1, +1, 0, –1.
2. Count through an entire deck one card at a time and keep a running count.
For a single deck, the running count starts at zero. As each card is played, you need to recall its value and add that to the running count. Again, this must be done completely silently and with no lip movement. If you make no mistakes, your RC will be +4 at the end of the deck. For the example above, the same sequence of cards would be counted in the following fashion.
Single Card K-O Value Running Count
3 +1 +1
5 +1 +2
king –1 +1
2 +1 +2
8 0 +2
queen –1 +1
3 .Practice with pairs of cards.
When you’ve become comfortable keeping the count, practice by turning the cards over two at a time and determining the net count for each pair of cards. For example, a hand of jack and ace (a blackjack) has a net count equal to (–1) + (–1) = –2. Two tens also have a net Knock-Out count value of –2. A stiff total of 16 made up of Q,6 has a net count equal to (–1) + (+1) = 0.
Practice this until counting pairs is second-nature and you don’t need to do the addition. Strive to recognize pairs that cancel to zero, such as 10,2, Q,4, A,5, etc. This canceling technique will save you a great deal of effort and greatly increase your speed.
4. Count through an entire deck in pairs while keeping a running count.
Turning two cards over at a time, you need to recall (not calculate) their net Knock-Out value, and add it to the running count. For our card sequence above, we would count in the following fashion.
Pairs of Cards Net K-O Value Running Count
3,5 +2 +2
K,2 0 +2
8,Q –1 +1
How fast do you need to be? A good rule of thumb, no matter which card-counting system you use, is to be able to count down an entire deck of cards in 25 to 30 seconds.
Many beginners find the prospect of counting an entire deck in 30 seconds a bit daunting. Don’t worry. Once you master the technique of netting (and canceling) two cards at a time, you’ll literally fly through the deck. In a short amount of time, counting cards will become as easy as reading. When you read words, you don’t recite the sound of each letter and you don’t try to sound out the word. You simply view the word and your brain immediately recognizes it. The same will happen with card counting after some practice.
Once you can count one deck, the transition to multiple decks isn’t difficult. The only change is the new value for the initial running count, which is necessary to ensure that you always end up with a final RC of +4.
We recommend practicing with the number of decks that you will most often play against. For example, if you live on the East Coast and know you’ll be visiting Atlantic City or Foxwoods, you’ll be best served practicing for the 6- and 8-deck shoes that you’ll encounter in those destinations. The same is true for patrons of Midwestern and Southern riverboat casinos. On the other hand, visitors to Nevada will have a choice of several different games, and may want to become proficient counting both single and multiple decks.
To succeed in casino-like conditions, you must be able to count the entire pack quickly and correctly. If you’re too slow, you won’t be able to keep track of all the cards in a casino environment. Counting only a fraction of the cards is self-destructive, as you aren’t making use of all the information available to you. Far worse is counting only a fraction of the cards and consistently missing the same type of card.
Let’s take an example where you’re just a little slow and seem to miss counting a player’s last card when he busts. This is a reasonable scenario, since dealers tend to snatch up the cards from a busted hand quickly. Missing (or neglecting) this card will cut into profits in two major ways. First, you won’t count about one in every 15 cards dealt, which has negative consequences with regard to effective deck penetration (a factor in profitability that will be discussed later in the text).
Second, and far more damaging, your count will become an inaccurate indicator, signaling you to increase your bet at inopportune times. Why? Hands tend to bust with high cards. Always missing these cards (which are preferentially negative in their count values) will greatly inflate your running count, causing you to incorrectly conclude that you have the advantage when you don’t. Not only will you suffer from inaccurate betting, you’ll compound the error by playing key hands wrong.
SUMMARY
• The Knock-Out system eliminates, or greatly simplifies, most tasks associated with successful card counting. The K-O is a single-level, single-parameter, unbalanced count, which means that no true-count conversion is necessary—the count is started at the IRC, and decisions made according to the running count only.
• You must learn to keep the running count perfectly. This will require practice. In time, you will learn to recognize the K-O values instantly and update the count automatically.
• The information the running count provides allows you to make proper betting and playing decisions. The techniques for using this information are described in the chapters that follow.
Round 5
* * *
The Knock-Out System — Rookie
Eureka! I have found it.
—Archimedes
It’s time to start putting what we’ve learned to practical use. As we’ve made clear throughout this book, the K-O system was designed to incorporate the best combination of strength and ease of use. It’s powerful and it’s easy—but it’s not a “gimme.” To capture the full potential of the system (and maximize your earnings), you’ll have to study and practice. That said, however, we’re at a point, right now, at which we can use our knowledge to actually play the game of blackjack with an advantage over the mighty house.
The K-O Rookie system, presented here, is a streamlined ultra-simple manifestation of the K-O technique. But it’s also something more. In the purest sense, K-O Rookie is the essence of winning blackjack. That’s because winning at blackjack, more than anything else, is about bet variation—betting a lot when you have the advantage and betting a little when you don’t. The K-O Rookie system shows you how to do exactly that.
Two subsets of players will benefit from this incarnation of the K-O counting system. The first consists of novice counters who find the initiation into the casino environment somewhat overwhelming. Playing “for real,” with real money and real distractions, often turns out to be quite daunting. Because of this, we’ve found that card counters making their debut in casinos sometimes do better starting with an extremely simple approach.
The second subset comprises a much larger group. It’s made up of thousands of players who have learned (or partially learned) basic strategy, but either can’t or won’t learn to count cards; they’ve been convinced that counting is too difficult. Many of these players know intuitively that in order to win they have to raise their bets at some point during play—if they don’t, the house edge will grind them down and, eventually, out. But at what point do you raise?
The only time it’s truly correct to raise your bet is when you have an advantage over the house, and those times can only be identified by counting cards. Since most players don’t count, they turn to other means to guide their betting. Most rely on “money-management” techniques. There’s only one problem with this approach: it doesn’t work. You cannot overcome the casino’s advantage at blackjack with bet variation that isn’t correlated with the count. Blackjack players using basic strategy along with such betting systems can expect to lose at a rate equal to the house advantage—no more and no less.
Knock-Out Rookie is a betting system, too. But it’s a choreographed system that is correlated with the count.
By combining perfect basic strategy play and the ability to keep the running count (perfected by the techniques in Chapter 4) with the betting advice in this chapter, you can play blackjack with an advantage. It’s time to find out how.
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE KEY COUNT
Recall the gumball analogy (Chapter 3) in which we introduced the concept of the key count. The key count is the count at which we first have the advantage. It was +1 in the gumball game, which signified that there was one extra winning gumball in the mix and favorable for us to raise our bet.
