Exit Plan jm-3, page 39
part #3 of Jerry Mitchell Series
Shocked, the president and his two secretaries looked at the ambassador, and then each other. SECDEF Springfield finally gathered his thoughts and said, “Mr. Ambassador, planes from those bases support both our nations’ interests. The information from our E-3 Sentry and RC-135 intelligence aircraft is shared with your government. Your air force trains at those bases. And in a time of crisis, like this one, our warplanes are ready to assist in your defense.”
“Our own air force will deal with the current situation, Mr. Secretary, and we expect this interruption to last only a few days, maybe just one.” He smiled. “Perhaps your mechanics can use the time to get caught up on their maintenance.
“Letters identical to this one are being given to your ambassador in Riyadh, the commander of U.S. Central Command, and the commanders of the five air bases involved. No further takeoffs or landings will be allowed except for those aircraft currently aloft, and of course, humanitarian missions, which must be approved by my government.”
Myles, still shocked, understood the purpose of the Saudi action. “Without U.S. air presence, Israeli planes could operate over Saudi airspace without our knowledge. I’m surprised, Mr. Ambassador, that you would allow them passage.”
“Do not read too much into our agreement with the Israelis. We may have found common cause with them on this particular issue, but that has more to do with the Iranian genius for creating enemies than our love for the Jews.”
Khalid bowed. “Peace and Allah’s blessings be upon you.” The ambassador turned to leave, and Alvarez followed him out.
The instant the door closed behind them, the president’s phone buzzed. Answering, Myles listened for a minute, then said, “All right, Ray, we’ll be there in five minutes.”
7 April 2013
1150 Local Time/1650 Zulu
Situation Room, The White House
President Myles’s arrival created a ten-second pause in the commotion, but even Ray Kirkpatrick barely hesitated in his conversation. All the workstations on one side of the room were manned, and staff poured into and out of the room, bringing or taking away messages or assisting the operators. Myles noticed that the rank of the staff was slowly increasing. Officers replaced some enlisted personnel, and senior officers replaced the junior ones.
Nodding toward the president and the two secretaries, Kirkpatrick spoke encouragingly into the phone, “I understand, General, but turn them around as quickly as possible. We need those planes back in the air.”
The national security advisor spoke quickly to an Air Force colonel, who hurried away, then turned to the three officials.
“The Saudis have caught us completely unprepared. We’re going to get one E-3 and one RC-135 out of Saudi airspace to Iraq, but there won’t be any support at Tallil or Baghdad. It will take hours to get more planes and people from Tinker in Oklahoma. I’m sorry, but I don’t know just how long yet.
“At least twelve hours,” Springfield said gloomily.
“By which time it will be too late,” Myles concluded. “When is sunset at Natanz, Ray?”
“In Iran? About 1830 local time. It’s dark over there now,” Kirkpatrick answered.
“Then they could go at any time,” Myles said resolutely.
“But, sir, the Israelis told Dr. Patterson they wouldn’t go today,” Springfield reminded him.
Myles chuckled quietly. “That was before we pissed them off. Still, you’re probably right. But all bets are off at the stroke of midnight Greenwich Mean Time.”
“I’m working with CENTCOM to use E-2 Hawkeyes from USS Reagan to take the E-3’s place, but that means tying her strike group to the western half of the gulf. People might be able to take advantage of that. By the way, the Saudis are parking trucks and other large vehicles on the runways and taxiways at all five of their bases. We can’t sneak anyone out.”
“What do we know about the Israelis?” Myles asked.
Kirkpatrick invited them to take seats, and he gestured to a naval officer. “Commander Kennedy has been continuously updating the Israeli status, based on what little we know.”
Kennedy was a big man, filling out his dress blues. The aviator wings were almost lost on his uniform jacket. He pressed a key on his laptop and the big screen lit up with a map of the area.
“Even when we know where to look, the Israelis aren’t giving away much. ‘There’s been a complete communications blackout for several days, and they’ve timed aircraft movements to avoid our satellite passes. Our attaches have been barred from visiting any of the air bases or IAF headquarters. Normally, we’d at least get rumors from the local media, but they’ve put a lid on that as well. Our best bet is to look at their mission planning.”
A line appeared, running from southern Israel almost due south into Saudi Arabian airspace. Once past the southern tip of Jordan, the line turned east-southeast across the Saudi Arabian peninsula, passing just south of Iraq and Kuwait. When it crossed the Saudi coastline over the gulf, it turned northeast, straight toward Natanz.
“This is our estimate of the Israelis’ flight path. Until the Saudis made their announcement a short time ago, we had to consider three possible routes: north, then east across Turkey; straight east across Iraq; or south and east across Saudi. Now we know who they’ve gotten in bed with.”
Distances appeared by each line segment, and the commander explained, “Knowing how far they have to fly tells us how many aircraft they’re likely to send. They will have to refuel in flight, probably just before they turn the corner over the gulf. Given nine operational tankers, they can put four squadrons of fighter-bombers over Natanz, one of F-15Is and three of F-16I. If I was going to hit Natanz, that’s how many I’d send. And remember, Israeli squadrons are double the standard size — twenty-four instead of twelve aircraft.”
Secretary Lloyd asked, “How many will they lose?”
Kennedy hit a key, flashing past several slides. A map of Iran appeared, marked with symbols for radars, missile sites, and fighter bases. “This is Iran’s air defense network. Their newest radars use 1980s technology and most of their surface-to-air missiles are just as old. The Iranians have two squadrons of early MiG-29 Fulcrums, but their pilots have limited air-to-air training. In an air battle, the Israelis outclass them in every category. It’s first-rate air force against a third- or even fourth-rate one. There is a fair possibility that the Israelis will not suffer any losses. It’s likely that they will suffer only a handful, five at the very most.”
Kennedy zoomed in the map until the Natanz facility filled the screen. More symbols marked hundreds of light and heavy antiaircraft guns, six batteries of SAM launchers, and several low-altitude warning radars. “Natanz is the most heavily defended place in Iran, except for the capital, Tehran, but most of this is wasted effort. The biggest guns there, ten batteries of four radar-guided 100mms each, have a range of four-and-a-half miles.”
The screen changed again, to show a plane’s flight path from the side. Near the target, the plane’s flight path climbed sharply and curved back the way it came. “The Israelis will almost certainly use GPS-guided bombs from high altitude. When they’re ready to release, they’ll go into a zoom climb and literally toss the weapon toward its target. The bomb arcs over and uses its own guidance, while the plane is now headed directly away from the target. They’ll launch from eight to ten miles away, well outside the range of the guns. Jamming and antiradar missiles will deal with the SAMs.”
Lloyd looked surprised, even shocked. “So the guns, the missiles…” Kennedy shrugged. “Against a 1970s or 1980s threat, it’s bad news. Now it’s just a Pasdaran jobs program.”
The commander highlighted different sections of the facility. “Here is the fake weapon’s assembly facility next to the transformer building. These are the two buried centrifuge halls, about five hundred thousand square feet, give or take. This cross-shaped collection of buildings is the pilot enrichment plant. These will be the primary targets.”
“And that takes nearly a hundred aircraft?” Lloyd asked.
“It’s a long way to go, so the strikers can’t carry a full load. The F-15I is rated for two GBU-28s, five-thousand-pound penetrators, but at that distance they can only carry one. That’s twenty-four weapons, twelve for each hall. We estimate five weapons are needed to destroy each hall completely, and they will have to ‘double-tap,’ drop a second weapon into the hole made by the first one, if they want to get through the overhead protection. Of course, even one or two weapons penetrating into the underground facility will wreak tremendous damage.
“One of the other F-16 squadrons will carry smaller weapons, in the thousand-pound- or two-thousand-pound class, to attack the assembly facility and the pilot plant buildings. Those aren’t armored.”
“And the other squadrons?” Lloyd asked.
“Dual role, defense suppression and escort. Some will fan out and attack radars and SAM sites in the area, or launch decoys to confuse the defenses. Others will stay close to the strikers and do the same thing to the defenses at Natanz proper. And both squadrons will carry AMRAAM and Python 5 air-to-air missiles, just in case the Iranians do manage to get some fighters up.”
“We always knew the Israelis could level the place,” Myles said. “But what happens when the Iranians aren’t prevented from building a bomb, because there was never one to build?”
Kennedy put up a new screen, with range circles centered on Iran. “Their first response will be conventional ballistic missile attacks. The missiles are inaccurate, but cities are big targets. If one hits a populated area, it will take out a city block. Iran will encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to make large-scale attacks, and it’s likely they’ve stockpiled some unpleasant surprises. Iran’s also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz if they’re attacked. Iran’s government has made it clear that they will spread the pain as far and wide as they can. They like to use the phrase ‘increase the arc of crisis. ‘“
“But this was a war they wanted,” Secretary Springfield protested. “What can they win?”
Myles sighed. “Israel’s goal is to deter Iran from building a bomb that never was. It can’t physically defeat Iran or occupy its territory. All they will do is give Iran a casus belli. If Iran can’t become the leader of the Islamic world by building a bomb, how about by leading a war against Israel — a war Israel can only lose, because there is nothing for it to win.”
“A war we can’t stay out of,” Springfield added. “We’ve declared that if Iran closed the strait, we’d use force to open it again. Europe has said the same thing. And we have to keep it open. So we all get pulled in.”
Kirkpatrick added, “We’ve also seen some interesting things going on at Saudi air bases. Their Strike Eagles and Tornado squadrons may be preparing to make their own attacks.”
“Joining the Israelis?” Lloyd asked, surprised at the idea.
“No, sir, they’re taking advantage of the confusion.” Kirkpatrick motioned to Kennedy, who changed the map to show the entire length of the Persian Gulf. More range circles appeared, centered on the Saudi airfields. “They’re thinking ahead,” Kirkpatrick explained. “If the Iranians do try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Saudis will be hurt the most. We believe there is a good chance that the Saudis will preemptively strike antiship missile batteries that the Iranians have near the strait, both on the coast and on islands in the strait. They could also attack Iranian oil loading terminals and refineries, like the one at Bandar Abbas.”
Lloyd smiled. “That’s one way of removing your competition. But it also gives Iran justification to attack the Saudis, their other non-best friends.”
“And another U.S. ally becomes involved,” Myles observed. “That guarantees us getting sucked in. Anyone want to guess what will happen to the economy when energy prices spike? And it won’t be just us. Everyone who brings oil through the strait will be hurt.”
“And this is a win for Iran?” Lloyd asked. “I know how you feel, Mr. President, but sometimes I think that bombing Iran is the right call.”
Myles shook his head and smiled. “Business before pleasure, Andy. We aren’t going to defeat their military and occupy the country, either. Do you want to bet on how long it would take them to say ‘uncle’? And what if they get support from other countries? China would love to keep us tied up in the Persian Gulf.”
Myles turned to face the entire group. “Trust me, gentlemen. The first principle of the Myles doctrine is going to be ‘Bombing stuff is not always a good idea.’ But I may have to polish the language a bit.”
7 April 2013
1230 Washington, D.C., Time/1730 Zulu/2230 Iran Time
Captain’s Cabin, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), in the Persian Gulf
Commander Gary, the carrier air group or CAG commander, almost ran into Captain Allen’s stateroom. Breathless, he asked, “Skipper, tell me this is a practical joke.”
Allen smiled as he shook his head. “No, Taz, and you’ve got one minute and twenty seconds to park it and catch your breath.”
Complying, the CAG asked, “Aye, aye, sir, but why here? Why not in Combat or Flag Plot where we have videoconferencing facilities?”
Allen’s answer was interrupted by Admiral Thomas Graves, the strike group commander. Although senior in rank to the captain, he was “embarked” on Reagan and technically a guest. He knocked on the open door frame and asked, “May I join you?” as if he hadn’t been summoned as well.
“Of course, sir,” said Allen, mentally shoving the admiral into his seat with seconds to go. Allen and Gary retook their seats and the captain nodded to a petty officer. “All right, it’s time.”
Precisely at 2230, the video screen in Allen’s stateroom came to life. Facing the three naval officers, thanks to the wonders of technology, were President Myles, Secretary of Defense Springfield, and General Dewhurst, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
Dewhurst started the conversation. “Good evening, Admiral. What is your status?”
Graves didn’t hesitate. “We’ve got two E-2Ds in the air with escorts, another two CAP stations covering any approach from Iran. We have strike aircraft and relief CAP on five minutes’ notice. We ran drills all morning with excellent performance from the entire formation. I just came from Flag Plot. No subsurface tracks, six air tracks, all visually identified as commercial. The surface picture is much busier. We’ve had close passes from Iranian speedboats, most of them armed. They’re testing our reactions, but they haven’t pushed it. I told my escort skippers to play nicely until I say otherwise.”
“Do you have any problems?” asked Kirkpatrick.
“Well, sir, gap-filling for an E-3 is a challenge. It would be nice to have some more E-2s. Running two stations instead of one with only four aircraft aboard means port and starboard duty.”
“By the time we could get you any additional Hawkeyes, it wouldn’t matter. If you can make do for tonight, that should be enough.”
“Of course, sir,” Graves answered. The admiral looked over at Gary, who nodded confidently.
“Anything else, Admiral?” Kirkpatrick sensed there was something else bothering the strike group commander.
“I wasn’t happy about detaching one of my destroyers to head southeast, sir. That left a big hole in my screen. We’ve jiggled around the remaining escorts, but we’re thinner than I would like. If the Iranians do try to execute a swarm attack, my defensive posture isn’t as robust,” complained Graves.
“I understand, Admiral. But the issue isn’t about the Iranians,” said Kirkpatrick, gesturing to the president.
Myles finally spoke. “Gentlemen, sometime this evening, or more likely early tomorrow morning, we expect the Israelis to launch a powerful airstrike against the Iranian facility at Natanz. It will pass through Saudi airspace and is likely to cross the western end of the gulf just south of Kuwait.”
Graves answered, “Yes, sir, we’re ready. We came to that conclusion as well after the Saudis shut down all our bases. We plan to be well clear of Iranian airspace.”
“Admiral, when your E-2s detect that raid, you must intercept and prevent the Israelis from entering Iranian airspace.”
“Intercept the Israelis?” Graves was dumbfounded. “Sir, with all due respect, let me confirm that you want me to stop the Israeli attack against Iran. That you want us to force the Israelis to turn around and return to base.”
While Admiral Graves spoke, Captain Allen’s mind spun in circles. He’d more than half-expected the presidential summons to be orders to join the Israelis in the attack, or attack other Iranian targets while their air defenses were tied up in knots.
“Admiral, without going into the background, Iran is intentionally provoking the Israelis to attack. If they succeed and the Israelis strike Iran, it will start a war that will tear the region apart and inevitably involve the United States, to no good end.”
“Turning them back will take more than strong language, Mr. President. If I send armed aircraft to intercept the raid, what are my rules of engagement?”
Myles sighed. “If they refuse to turn around, shoot them down. But if either we or the Israelis shoot, the Iranians win. It would be best if you could turn them back without firing.”
And that’s why we’re doing this in the captain’s cabin, Allen realized. This was dynamite.
8 April 2013
0430 Local Time/0130 Zulu
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76)
VFA-147 Argonauts Ready Room
The pilots of Fighter Attack Squadron 147 were used to getting briefings on threat aircraft, everything from older MiGs like the Fishbed and Flogger to first-line aircraft like the Flanker. Nobody expected to fight the Russians anytime soon, but third-world countries had a lot of Russian gear. The Iranians had MiG-29 Fulcrums, for example.
But they also operated French Mirage F1s and even old American-made F-4 Phantoms, so Zipper, aka Lieutenant (jg) Allan Zirpowski, the air intelligence officer, had put together briefs for those aircraft as well. It was more than just data on speed, ceiling, and weapons carried. Tactics needed to be adjusted to match the opponent and the pilots. He gave good briefs, and the Argonauts listened hard and took notes. Sleeping though a threat brief was a good way to end up dead.
