Seven Crashes, page 43
39. Ryan Lizza, “Inside the Crisis: Larry Summers and the White House Economic Team,” New Yorker 85, no. 32 (2009).
40. Megumi Naoi, Voting with the Wallet: Consumers, Income-Earners, and the New Politics of Globalization Backlash (forthcoming book).
41. Helena Smith, “Left’s Dynasty to Rule in Greece Again,” Observer, October 4, 2009.
42. Simeon Djankov, Inside the Euro Crisis: An Eyewitness Account (Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2014), 65.
43. Yannis Palaiologos, “The Story behind Greece’s ‘Unprecedented Fiscal Derailment’ in 2009,” Ekathimerini, January 12, 2018.
44. Niall Ferguson, “A Greek Crisis Is Coming to America,” Financial Times, February 10, 2010.
45. François Hollande, Les leçons du pouvoir (Paris: Stock, 2018), 365.
46. Chris Giles and George Parker, “Devil in the Detail as Era of Austerity Begins,” Financial Times, January 18, 2010.
47. David Ramsden, “The Government’s Strategy for Sustainable Growth,” in The UK Economy: The Crisis in Perspective, ed. Gabriele Guidice, Robert Kuenzel, and Tom Springbett (London: Routledge, 2011), 203, 206.
48. Hank Paulson, On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System (New York: Business Plus, 2010), 375; see also “France’s Sarkozy, EU’s Barroso in Strasbourg,” Reuters, October 21, 2008; and Felipe F. Salvosa II, “Stricter Rules Urged by EU,” BusinessWorld, October 20, 2008.
49. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “As Leaders Wrestle with Downturn, Developing Nations Get Ringside Seats,” New York Times, November 16, 2008.
50. Daniel Dombey, Krishna Guha, and Andrew Ward, “Talks Challenge Club of Rich Countries,” Financial Times, November 17, 2008.
51. “Lula Unleashed: Brazil’s President Blames White Guys for the Financial Crisis,” Economist, March 27, 2009.
52. Sam Jones, Jenny Percival, and Paul Lewis, “G20 Protests; Riot Police Clash with Demonstrators,” Guardian, April 1, 2009.
53. Dan Drezner, The System Worked: How the World Stopped Another Great Depression (New York: Oxford University Press, 2014).
54. Henry Morgenthau’s closing address at the conference, https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/2003/12/12/b88b1fe7–8fec-4da6-ae22-fa33edd08ab6/publishable_en.pdf.
55. George Parker, Chris Giles, Edward Luce, and David Oakley, “G20 Leaders Claim Summit Success,” Financial Times, April 2, 2009.
56. Jonathan Weisman and Alistair MacDonald, “G-20 in London: Brown and Obama Claim Summit Victories,” Wall Street Journal Europe, April 3, 2009.
57. Gordon Brown, My Life, Our Times (London: Bodley Head, 2017), 312.
58. See Chris Giles, “Large Numbers Serve to Hide Big Divisions,” Financial Times, April 3, 2009.
59. Geoff Dyer, “Hesitating to Take On Global Leadership,” Financial Times, April 2, 2009.
60. David Pilling, “The Virtues of Not Being Financially Sophisticated,” Financial Times, April 2, 2009.
61. Charles Clover, “Xi Jinping Signals Departure from Low-Profile Policy,” Financial Times, October 20, 2017.
62. Hu Jintao, Selected Works, vol. 3 (Beijing: People’s Publisher, 2016).
63. Xinhua News Agency, July 20, 2009; quoted in Bonnie S. Glaser and Benjamin Dooley, “China’s 11th Ambassadorial Conference Signals Continuity and Change in Foreign Policy,” China Brief 9, no. 22 (2009).
64. Krishna Guha and Edward Luce, “Deal on Global Imbalances Sought at G20 Summit,” Financial Times, September 16, 2009.
65. Krishna Guha and Geoff Dyer, “China Scorns Focus on Imbalances,” Financial Times, September 17, 2009.
66. Chris Giles, “Sniping Mars Spirit of Co-operation,” Financial Times, September 25, 2009.
67. Bertrand Benoit, Tom Braithwaite, and Ben Hall, “Berlin Frets at Focus on Imbalances,” Financial Times, September 22, 2009.
68. Clive Crook, “Platitudes from the Pittsburgh Summit,” Financial Times, October 1, 2009.
69. Alan Beattie, “Greenspan Criticises China but Warns US over Weaker Dollar,” Financial Times, November 11, 2010.
70. Alan Beattie and Christian Oliver, “US Denies Pushing Down the Dollar,” Financial Times, November 12, 2010.
71. John Paul Rathbone and Jonathan Wheatley, “Brazil Ready to Retaliate against Fed Move,” Financial Times, November 4, 2010.
72. Ed Luce and James Lamont, “Obama Insists QE2 is ‘Good for the World,’” Financial Times, November 8, 2010.
73. Beattie and Oliver, “US Denies Pushing Down the Dollar.”
74. Geoff Dyer, “Pressure Grows on China as Surplus Surges,” Financial Times, November 11, 2010.
75. Mure Dickie, “Japan Swells,” Financial Times, November 10, 2010.
76. Peter Spiegel and Gerritt Wiesmann, “Simmering Anger at Germany Boils Over,” Financial Times, November 17, 2010.
77. Xi Jinping, “Promote Friendship between Our People and Work Together to Build a Bright Future,” speech given in Astana, Kazakhstan, September 7, 2013, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cebel/eng/zxxx/t1078088.htm.
78. Jeremy Stein, “Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses,” speech at the “Restoring Household Financial Stability after the Great Recession: Why Household Balance Sheets Matter” research symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, February 7, 2013, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20130207a.htm.
79. Linda Kole and Robert Martin, “Overview of Japan’s Monetary Policy Responses to Deflation,” Federal Open Market Committee memo, December 5, 2008, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20081212memo03.pdf.
80. See the Japanese government’s presentation of the policies of Shinzo Abe: https://www.japan.go.jp/abenomics/index.html.
81. Joseph E. Gagnon and Brian Sack, “18 –19 QE: A User’s Guide,” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief, October 2018.
82. Laurence Ball, “IMF Advice on Unconventional Monetary Policies to Major Advanced Economies,” Independent Evaluation Office Background Paper, May 2019.
83. European Central Bank, “ECB Announces Monetary Policy Measures to Enhance the Functioning of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism,” June 5, 2014, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2014/html/pr140605_2.en.html.
84. This is the case that was made especially vigorously by Hans-Werner Sinn, notably in The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).
85. Mario Draghi, “Unemployment in the Euro Area,” speech at the Annual Central Bank Symposium, Jackson Hole, WY, August 22, 2014, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2014/html/sp140822.en.html.
86. Robin Harding, “US Quantitative Measures Work in Defiance of Theory,” Financial Times, October 13, 2014.
87. Ibid.
88. John Hilsenrath, “Fed Closes Chapter on Easy Money,” Wall Street Journal, October 29, 2014.
89. Martin Weale and Tomasz Wieladek, “What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases?” Bank of England External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 42, April 2014.
90. David Greenlaw, James D. Hamilton, Ethan Harris, and Kenneth D. West, “A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet,” NBER Working Paper No. 24687, 2018.
91. Ben Hall, George Parker, and Norma Cohen, “Sarkozy Hits at UK Response to Crisis,” Financial Times, February 7, 2009.
92. See Pedro Gustavo Teixeira, The Legal History of the European Banking Union: How European Law Led to the Supranational Integration of the Single Financial Market (Oxford: Hart/Bloomsbury, 2020).
93. Krishna Guha, “Delegates Face Difficulties in Fulfilling Promise of Coordinated Response,” Financial Times, November 15, 2008.
94. See https://www.globaltradealert.org.
95. Quoted in “Steve Jobs iPhone 2007 Presentation (Full Transcript),” Singju Post, July 4, 2014.
96. Ben S. Bernanke, The Courage to Act: A Memoir of the Crisis and Its Aftermath (New York: W. W. Norton, 2015), 30.
97. See Tim Congdon, “Did Bernanke’s ‘Creditism’ Aggravate the Financial Crisis of 2008?” in Macroeconomic Theory and Its Failings, ed. Steven Kates (London: Edward Elgar, 2010), 26 –39.
98. Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler, “Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations,” American Economic Review 79 (March 1989): 14 –31; Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler, “Financial Fragility and Economic Performance,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (February 1990): 87–114.
99. Irving Fisher, “Debt Deflation,” Economica 1, no.4 (1933): 337–357.
100. Ben Bernanke, “Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis,” in Japan’s Financial Crisis and Its Parallels to U.S. Experience, ed. Ryōichi Mikitani and Adam Simon Posen (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2000), 151.
101. Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler, “Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility,” Economic Review—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 84, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 1999): 17–51.
102. Bernanke, “Japanese Monetary Policy,” 158.
103. Ibid., 160.
104. Ibid., 162.
105. See Bernanke and Gertler, “Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility.”
106. Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economists, Richmond, Virginia, March 10, 2005, https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200503102/.
107. Bernanke, “Japanese Monetary Policy,” 158.
108. Ibid., 161.
109. Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey Sachs, “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s,” Journal of Economic History 45, no. 4 (1985): 925 –946; Ben S. Bernanke and Harold James, “The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison,” in Financial Markets and Financial Crises, ed. Glenn Hubbard (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 33 –68.
110. Bernanke, “Japanese Monetary Policy,” 164.
111. Ibid., 165.
112. Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Adam S. Posen, Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), 310 –311; Bernanke and Gertler, “Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility.”
113. Gee Hee Hong and Todd Schneider, “Shrinkonomics: Lessons from Japan,” Finance and Development 57 (March 2020): 1. Japan is the world’s laboratory for drawing policy lessons on aging, dwindling populations.
114. Ben S. Bernanke, “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here,” remarks before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C., November 21, 2002, https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm.
115. Ben S. Bernanke, “What Tools Does the Fed Have Left? Part 3: Helicopter Money,” Brookings Institute blog post, Monday, April 11, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/04/11/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-3-helicopter-money/.
116. Bob Woodward, Maestro: Greenspan’s Fed and the American Boom (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000).
117. Sebastian Mallaby, The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan (London: Bloomsbury, 2016), 648.
118. J. Adam Tooze, Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World (New York: Viking, 2018), 38.
119. Bernanke, Courage, 129.
120. Zachary Karabell, “Our Hero, Ben Bernanke,” Atlantic, December 13, 2012, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/12/our-hero-ben-bernanke-why-central-bankers-not-politicians-are-saving-the-global-economy/266210/.
121. Meltzer, History of the Federal Reserve, 1232.
122. Bernanke, Courage, 256.
123. Laurence M. Ball, The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record Straight on a Financial Disaster, Studies in Macroeconomic History (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2018).
124. Ibid.
125. Ben S. Bernanke, “The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Financial Crisis,” March 27, 2012, https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/educational-tools/lecture-series-federal-reserve-response-to-the-financial-crisis.htm; see also “Liquidity and the Role of the Lender of Last Resort,” panel discussion at Brookings Institute, April 30, 2014, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/liquidity-lender-of-last-resort-event.pdf; and Thomas L. Hogan, Linh Le, and Alexander William Salter, “Ben Bernanke and Bagehot’s Rules,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47, nos. 2–3 (March–April 2015): 333 –348.
126. Randall Smith, Carrick Mollenkamp, Joellen Perry, and Greg Ip, “How a Panicky Day Led the Fed to Act,” Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2007.
127. Ben S. Bernanke, “Federal Reserve Policies in the Financial Crisis,” remarks in front of Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 1, 2008, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20081201a.htm.
128. Ben S. Bernanke, “The New Tools of Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review 110, no. 4 (2020): 943.
129. Ben Bernanke at meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 2–3, 2010, 98, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20101103meeting.pdf.
130. See also Lars Svennson, “The Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap: Is It Really, and Can It Help Japan?” Frank D. Graham Memorial Lecture, Princeton University, April 2001, https://larseosvensson.se/papers/grahamnt/.
131. Ibid., 105.
132. Richard Fisher, meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 2–3, 2010, 150, 152.
133. Kevin M. Warsh, “The New Malaise and How to End It,” Wall Street Journal, November 8, 2010.
134. Kevin Warsh, meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 2–3, 2010, 176, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20101103meeting.pdf.
135. Jeremy Page and Patrick McGroarty, “G-20 Nations Aim to Grill Fed on Purchases,” Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2010; Stephen Brown and Andreas Rinke, “German Tempers Fray as U.S. Policy Gulf Widens,” Reuters, November 10, 2010.
136. Neil Irwin, The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire (New York: Penguin, 2013), 256.
137. Bernanke, “New Tools,” 961.
138. Olivier Blanchard, “Monetary Policy Will Never Be the Same,” International Monetary Fund Blog, November 19, 2013, https://blogs.imf.org/2013/11/19/monetary-policy-will-never-be-the-same/.
139. Bernanke, “New Tools,” 955; see also Jeffrey R. Campbell, Jonas D. M. Fisher, Alejandro Justiniano, and Leonardo Melosi, “Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis,” in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 31 (2016), ed. Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017), 283 –357.
140. Bernanke, “New Tools,” 944.
141. Laura Noonan, Cale Tilford, Richard Milne, Ian Mount, and Peter Wise, “Who Went to Jail for Their Role in the Financial Crisis?” Financial Times, September 20, 2018, https://ig.ft.com/jailed-bankers/.
142. Report of Boston Consulting Group: see “Banks Paid $321 Billion in Fines since Financial Crisis,” Reuters, March 2, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-banks-fines/banks-paid-321-billion-in-fines-since-financial-crisis-bcg-idUSKBN1692Y2.
143. “Fumio Kishida Pledges to Steer Japan away from Abenomics,” Financial Times, October 16, 2021.
144. “ECB Policy Losing Some Potency, Needs Fiscal Help: Draghi,” Reuters, October 28, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-draghi/ecb-policy-losing-some-potency-needs-fiscal-help-draghi-idUSKBN1X71LV.
145. On fiscal dominance, see Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2020).
146. See Marvin Goodfriend, “The Elusive Promise of Independent Central Banking,” Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan 30 (2012): 39–54; and Charles I. Plosser, “A Limited Central Bank,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 31 (2019): 16 –20.
147. “Summary of Meeting of President Truman and the Federal Open Market Committee,” January 31, 1951, Marriner S. Eccles Papers, University of Utah, Box 62, Folder 1, Item 1; also available at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/archival-collection/marriner-s-eccles-papers-1343.
148. See Sidney Hyman, Marriner S. Eccles: Private Entrepreneur and Public Servant (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1976), 339; also Thorvald Grung Moe, “Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury—Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence,” Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper No. 747, January 2013.
149. Adam Samson, “Lira Falls after Erdogan Calls Interest Rates ‘Mother of All Evil,’” Financial Times, May 11, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/d1fe4bf2–551b-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e.
7. The Great Lockdown
1. Justin Wise, “Trump Adviser Says ‘Globalization of Production’ Caused Medical Equipment Shortages,” Hill, April 13, 2020, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492469-trump-adviser-says-globalization-of-production-caused-medical.
2. Michael Holden, “UK’s Johnson Calls on G7 to Vaccinate World by End of 2022,” Reuters, June 5, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/uks-johnson-calls-g7-vaccinate-world-by-end-2022–2021–06–05/.
3. Russell Hope, “Coronavirus: Champions League Match a ‘Biological Bomb’ That Infected Bergamo, Experts Say,” Sky News, March 26, 2020, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-champions-league-match-a-biological-bomb-that-infected-bergamo-experts-say-11963905.
4. Jacob E. Lemieux et al., “Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Boston Highlights the Impact of Superspreading Events,” Science 371, no. 6529 (2021): 5.
5. “Coronavirus: ‘Momentous’ Errors Worsened Austria Ski Resort Outbreak,” BBC, October 13, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54523014.
6. Vibhuti Agarwal, Shan Li, and Suryatapa Bhattacharya, “India’s Covid Surge Is Most Ferocious Yet; ‘Spreading Like Wildfire,’” Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-surge-is-most-ferocious-yet-spreading-like-wildfire-11619388584.
