Snow, page 17
Over subsequent generations, the human birthrate plunged, as it did on other continents. Fewer resources and much harsher weather patterns drove an increase in infant mortality and reduced life expectancy. Vaccination levels plummeted when the supply of pharmaceuticals was interrupted and then became unreliable. However, as inhabitants adapted to the change in environment, and populations (and therefore disease transmission) became more static, the numbers of humans stabilised. The milestone birthrate of 2.0 was eventually reached in the early 2060s but infant mortality remained high. Many women living in remote locations did and still do not have access to specialist prenatal care resulting in a return to pre-modern-era maternal death rates during childbirth.
In the post-global era, with human populations travelling far less widely than in previous generations, with decentralised systems of government (similar to the local councils of the modern era), there is less pollution entering the environment and almost no industrial-scale production. However, the challenges presented by planet-wide permanent stratus cover (referred to colloquially as ‘clouding over’ and discussed in more detail in J.L. Anderson’s landmark paper ‘Permanent Stratus Cover: Cascading causes in the post-global era’, Post-Climate Journal, vol. 3, 2057) and its climatic impact on the islands of Zealand have been significant. The four-season annual cycle present in the higher latitudes gradually changed to the two-season pattern that used to be found only in equatorial and polar zones. In the Southern Hemisphere this manifests as one season of short days, the other of long days. However, under thick stratus cover, the long days are bookended with long twilight periods at dawn and dusk where the diffused sun is weak. Increased snowfalls, even commonly to sea level across the mainland, along with ice-storms that roll in regularly from the treacherous and unpredictable weather patterns in the Southern Ocean, make conditions harsh for all but the toughest of fauna, such as those that evolved through the last ice age, like Zealand bird life.
With a lower human population, the natural environment of Zealand flourished. Forests and waterways previously under threat from over-farming and pollution were no longer under the same pressure. In the emergency evacuations immediately following the west Antarctic ice-shelf collapse and subsequent ocean inundation, many species were released from captivity in facilities in coastal areas, among them bears and wild dogs. Over time these apex predators assumed the role seen in some Northern Hemisphere locations, reducing the numbers of smaller, introduced rodents that had decimated the endemic bird species of the old New Zealand ecosystem. With these small predators, such as rats and stoats, now controlled by the larger bears and dogs, bird numbers soared, so to speak.
The scientific community has been aware for decades that the introduction of non-native species can have disastrous effects. The release of foxes into southern Australia by invading colonists in the early nineteenth century is one such example. The numbers of small endemic marsupial species were devastated, with many of these animals never being scientifically noted and classified before being wiped out.
The well-intentioned but disastrous release of breeding pairs of polar bears onto the Antarctic icesheet in the mid 2020s is a more recent and pertinent example. The popularity of polar bears among humans and publicity of their desperate plight in the northern polar region resulted in the approval of the Southern Polar Bear Release Scheme (SPBRS). A private company was engaged to capture, transport and release the bears onto the Antarctic ice sheet.
The bears barely survived the long pole-to-pole voyage and when finally released they failed to thrive. The exact reason for their decline remains disputed but the most popular theory is acute disorientation, an effect of reversing the magnetic poles the bear’s brains had evolved to orient to. This certainly matches the observations made by scientists of the bears’ behaviour on their release. In spite of being supported initially with fresh kills, the bears did not eat and instead wandered in circular patterns, as if in an attempt to find their way home.
In one of the greatest scientific misadventures of human history, the last polar bear to survive the relocation, a female dubbed Drift, was euthanised when she finally collapsed from exhaustion. The experiment was over within one southern summer, the private catch-and-release company folding amid public outrage at the unnecessary loss of life.
The release of brown bears into the Zealand landscape took place under very different circumstances. During the Inundation, with a state of emergency in place across both islands, animals kept in captivity were humanely released by their keepers to make their way inland along with the human population and survive if they could. Perhaps it was a blessing that the four African tigers and small pride of lions released from the capital’s zoo sadly did not survive the flooding, while many of the great ape species voluntarily returned to captivity, almost all of their numbers soon accounted for by their keepers.
A breeding pair of brown bears, believed to be from a private sanctuary on the old South Island, survived and indeed thrived upon their release, making their way instinctively into high country. It is the progeny of one breeding pair (the sum total of brown bears listed in the DoC archives) that has resulted in the healthy population of wild bears in the South high country we see today.
It is now common to see the large parrot bird species, among them keas and kakas, living close to and among human towns and cities of Zealand. Numbers of wattle birds such as the tui have increased to what are presumed to be pre-European invasion numbers. Even the kōkako, assumed extinct in the modern era, has recovered in numbers and its distinctive call is heard throughout native forest regions of the mainland.
Most remarkable is the kakapo’s recovery. The bizarre alpine parrot’s habitats were saved from human encroachment and their small mammal predators’ numbers vastly reduced resulting in a breeding boom. The raptor and other predator species of falcon, harrier and owl (kārearea, kahu and ruru) frequent the skies. Even ocean-going mammal species such as seals, dolphins and whales have increased in numbers sufficient to allow sustainable hunting of these animals as a food source for local peoples. Councils impose strict catchments on these animals, however enforcement is ever an issue.
In conclusion, it is now accepted among scientists that the coincidental timing of a reduction in environmental pressures from human encroachment combined with the accidental release of an apex predator led first to a stabilising and second to a flourishing of the ancient endemic birdlife of the South and North islands of Zealand. However, it must be emphasised that this was not a controlled experiment undertaken by scientists but rather a rare example of an accident having a happy ending.
Acknowledgements
With heartfelt thanks to my friend Celia Jellett for her encouragement after an early reading of the manuscript, and long before that for sharing her office and her vast knowledge of children’s books with me. Thanks to Corrie Hosking, who understands about everything but especially about always trying to get back to the writing. Thanks to Agata Orlowicz, my yoga sister, who read the manuscript and carried Snow in her heart from that moment. Thanks to the wonderful, intrepid Margot Lloyd for not only editing but also taking the manuscript with her all the way to New York. And to my oldest of friends Jo Case, Liz Nicholson and Michael Bollen at Wakefield, thank you. Thanks in advance to my brother Jonathon who looks after all the books; and a lifetime of gratitude to Kath and David for passing on their love of reading. Thanks lastly to my love, Ben, for never doubting I could do it, and my daughters, Asha and Mim, for not minding too much about all the writerly absent-mindedness.
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Gina Inverarity, Snow
