The Robots Are Coming!, page 39
“There’s an educational revolution going on”: Julio Frenk, interview with the author, June 10, 2016.
“Historically, all five of those roles”: Randall Bass, telephone interview with the author, March 18, 2017.
8. THEY’RE COMING FOR FACTORY WORKERS!
“Any cars that are being made”: Cadie Thompson, “Elon Musk: In Less Than 20 Years, Owning a Car Will Be Like Owning a Horse,” Business Insider, November 4, 2015, www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-owning-a-car-in-20-years-like-owning-a-horse-2015-11.
“Since robots generally don’t drink”: Brad Templeton, interview with the author, Palo Alto, California, March 11, 2013.
“Few people seem to fully grasp”: Vivek Wadhwa and Alex Salkever, The Driver in the Driverless Car (Oakland, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2017).
Today, about 60 percent: The Economist Special Report, “Reinventing Wheels,” autonomous vehicles, March 1, 2018, media.economist.com/news/special-report/21737418-driverless-vehicles-will-change-world-just-cars-did-them-what-went-wrong.
according to BCG consulting firm projections: Ibid.
“The car is now ready to drive”: Lauren Barriere, interview with the author, Mountain View, California, May 8, 2017.
“ultimately self-driving will improve safety”: Dara Khosrowshahi, interview with the author, Miami, April 5, 2018.
more than a third of the trucks: Farhad Manjoo, “For the Debaters: What Shall We Do About the Tech Careening Our Way?” New York Times, September 21, 2016, www.nytimes.com/2016/09/22/technology/for-the-debaters-what-shall-we-do-about-the-tech-careening-our-way.html.
“The truck is always productive”: Ibid.
“It would make the job not worth doing”: Ibid.
“It’s going to be a real learning experience”: Neal F. Boudette, “There’s a Pizza Delivery in Ford’s Future, by Driverless Car,” New York Times, August 29, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/business/ford-driverless-pizza-delivery-dominos.html.
“Uber and Lyft Have Devastated”: Laura J. Nelson, “Uber and Lyft Have Devastated LA Taxi Industry, City Records Show,” Los Angeles Times, April 14, 2016, www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-uber-lyft-taxis-la-20160413-story.html.
“This isn’t just a test”: Rohan Roberts, interview with the author, December 20, 2016.
“Movable warehouses are a really nice idea”: Matthew Boyle, “Wal-Mart Applies for Patent for Blimp-Style Floating Warehouse,” Quartz.com, August 18, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-18/wal-mart-s-amazon-war-takes-to-skies-with-floating-warehouses.
annual sales of industrial robots: World Robotics Report 2016, International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt, September 2016.
“as human beings are also animals”: John Markoff, “Skilled Work, Without the Worker,” New York Times, August 18, 2012, www.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/business/new-wave-of-adept-robots-is-changing-global-industry.html.
“Robots are not people”: Karel Čapek, RUR (Rossum’s Universal Robots), translated by Paul Selver and Nigel Playfair, preprints.readingroo.ms/RUR/rur.pdf.
South Korea had an average of 531 robots: World Robotics Report 2016, Worldwide Distribution of Industrial Robots, 60.
the overall density of industrial robots in Japan’s: Ibid., 60.
“Right now, robots in car factories”: Kei Shimizu, interview with the author, Yaskawa headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, March 29, 2017.
“Imagine you are a manager”: “Disruptive Technologies: Advances That Will Transform Life, Business and the Global Economy,” McKinsey & Company, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013, 69, www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/McKinsey%20Digital/Our%20Insights/Disruptive%20technologies/MGI_Disruptive_technologies_Full_report_May2013.ashx.
“For example, if a small bakery”: Atsushi Yasuda, interview with the author, March 27, 2017.
There are already 67,824 Japanese citizens: Chris Weller, “Japan Has a Record 68,000 People over 100 Years Old,” Business Insider, September 15, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/japan-people-over-100-centenarians-new-record-economy-struggling-2017-9.
“We need robots to assist our elderly people”: Takeshi Kobayashi, interview with the author, Tokyo, March 27, 2017.
“China is by far the biggest robot market”: “China forecast 2020,” International Federation of Robotics, press release, August 16, 2017, ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robots-china-breaks-historic-records-in-automation.
“We will make robots”: Tom Ortlik, “China’s Future, Reshaped by Robots,” Bloomberg, August 13, 2013, www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-23/china-s-future-reshaped-by-robots.
Luo Weiqiang, the company’s general manager: “First Unmanned Factory Takes Shape in Dongguan City,” People’s Daily, July 15, 2015.
The robots make: Ibid.
“This is a milestone”: Emma Thomasson and Aleksandra Michalska, “Adidas to Mass Produce 3-D Printed Shoe with Silicon Valley Start-up,” Reuters, April 6, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-adidas-manufacturing-idUSKBN1790F6.
“What you can do is introduce”: Ibid.
but it was another eleven years: Ronald E. G. Davis, “The Birth of Commercial Aviation in the United States,” Revue Belge de Philologie et d’Histoire 78(3), 2000.
“Today, a third group has emerged”: Tom Davenport, “The Future of the Manufacturing Workforce, Report Two: The Rise of the ‘Tech’ in Manufacturing,” www.manpowergroup.com/wps/wcm/connect/f28fd14c-0b04-4174-b311-46e3e0c7e516/Man_Rise-of-Tech_021913.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=f28fd14c-0b04-4174-b311-46e3e0c7e516.
“now we have lots of robots”: Ibid.
“Perhaps the ideal situation”: Ibid.
9. THEY’RE COMING FOR ENTERTAINERS!
In 1870, the average workweek: “What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills and Wages,” McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017, 44, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-organizations-and-work/what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages.
“the cultural and creative industries”: “Cultural Times: The First Global Map of Cultural and Creative Industries,” December 2015, 5, unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0023/002357/235710E.pdf.
“It was barely possible last year when we did it”: Tim Gray, “How the Furious 7 Visual Effects Team Worked to Honor Paul Walker’s Legacy,” Variety, October 15, 2015, variety.com/2015/film/awards/furious-7-visual-effects-paul-walker-1201618224/.
“At first movies had maybe”: Carlos Arguello, telephone interview with the author, September 1, 2017.
The 1956 film The Ten Commandments: www.tasteofcinema.com.
the studio created its own: Alain Bielik, “Troy: Innovative Effects on an Epic Scale,” May 25, 2004, www.awn.com/vfxworld/troy-innovative-effects-epic-scale.
“before, we used to make films”: Richard Gere, interview with the author, Miami, March 3, 2017.
“Now we just remove”: Stuart Dryburgh, interview with the author, February 18, 2018.
Netflix spent $6 billion: Jeff Dunn, “Netflix and Amazon Are Estimated to Spend a Combined $10.5 Billion on Video This Year,” Business Insider, April 10, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/netflix-vs-amazon-prime-video-content-spend-estimate-chart-2017-4.
“It’s only a matter of time”: Nick Bilton, “Why Hollywood as We Know It Is Already Over,” Vanity Fair, July 3, 2017, www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/why-hollywood-as-we-know-it-is-already-over.
“Eventually it will”: Ibid.
the number of movies that people watch: Movie Box Office Results Per Year, 1980–Present, Box Office Mojo, www.boxofficemojo.com.
“The number of online platforms”: Julia Jenks, “The Number of Online Services Continues to Expand, Benefiting Consumers and Creators,” March 22, 2016, www.mpa-i.org/the-number-of-online-services-continues-to-expand-benefiting-consumers-and-creators/#.WvxnYi-ZPUI [inactive].
“There’s an explosion of possibilities”: Carlos Arguello, interview with the author, September 1, 2017.
After fifteen years of declining sales: “The Music Industry: Scales Dropped,” The Economist, April 16, 2016, and IFPI, Global Music Report 2017, www.ifpi.org.
According to a study by the investment bank Goldman Sachs: itsthevibe.com/spotify-music-industry/, and www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/music-in-the-air.html.
In 2017, a song had to be downloaded: Giselle Maronilla, “Is Spotify Killing the Music Industry…or Saving It?” itsthevibe.com/spotify-music-industry/.
live concert revenues in the United States: Dave DiMartino, “Live Nation Leads the Charge in Concert Business’ Booming Revenue,” Variety, variety.com/2017/music/features/live-nation-concert-business-1201979571/.
“artists aren’t limited”: Cherie Hu, interview with the author, October 13, 2017.
“We cross-checked with social-media-channel statistics”: Jeff Benjamin, “What Does It Take for a K-Pop Band to Blow Up in South America?” New York Times, May 7, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/magazine/what-does-it-take-for-a-k-pop-band-to-blow-up-in-south-america.html.
There will always be superstars: Quoted from “What Will the Music Business Look Like in 2020? 5 Predictions from Industry Insiders,” http://blog.sonicbids.com/what-will-the-music-business-look-like-in-2020-5-predictions-from-industry-insiders.
“Independent artists and songwriters”: Ibid.
“People will have bots”: Ibid., 258.
“Major networks become increasingly boxed out”: Delaware North, “The Future of Sports,” futureof.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Future-of-Sports-2015-Report.pdf.
Since it began, nearly five hundred athletes: Jasneel Chaddha, “The New Face of Sports Media,” Huffington Post, August 28, 2017.
“The world of video and connectivity”: Delaware North, “The Future of Sports.”
“The entire sporting complex”: Ibid.
history shows that some of the biggest innovations: Ibid.
And BASE jumping: Leo Benedictus, “Why Are Deadly Extreme Sports More Popular Than Ever?” The Guardian, August 20, 2016, www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/aug/20/why-are-deadly-extreme-sports-more-popular-than-ever.
the partnership between his company and GoPro: “Red Bull Takes Over Shares of GoPro,” May 27, 2016, www.ispo.com/en/companies/id_77942246/red-bull-takes-over-shares-in-gopro.html.
“the biggest sports upset story in recent memory”: Delaware North, “The Future of Sports.”
“it’s no longer just wanting”: Ibid.
Forty-two percent of the U.S. health club market’s: Ibid.
Yoga classes: Ibid.
“Alt-athletes have little interest in sitting”: Ibid.
“But there will be a Super Bowl”: Ibid.
the industry will generate 30 million new jobs: Data provided to the author by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) research director Evelyne Freiermuth on December 13, 2017.
“When you ask millennials”: Gloria Guevara, interview with the author, Miami, December 5, 2017.
“if this was Christmas and you were Santa Claus”: Chabeli Herrera, “Cruising Was More Popular Than Ever in 2017—Big Changes Are Coming,” Miami Herald, March 7, 2018, www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article203796204.html.
10. THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE
“technological unemployment is coming fast”: Peter Diamandis, at his conference at the Singularity University headquarters, May 8, 2017.
“We live in an unstable time”: Mark Zuckerberg’s speech to graduates of Harvard University, May 25, 2017, news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/05/mark-zuckerbergs-speech-as-written-for-harvards-class-of-2017/.
Adidas can churn out shoes: James Shotter and Lindsay Whipp, “Robot Revolution Helps Adidas Bring Shoemaking Back to Germany,” Financial Times, June 8, 2016, www.ft.com/content/7eaffc5a-289c-11e6-8b18-91555f2f4fde.
“it doesn’t make sense”: Jon Emont, “The Robots Are Coming for Garment Workers. That’s Good for the U.S., Bad for Poor Countries,” Wall Street Journal, February 16, www.wsj.com/articles/the-robots-are-coming-for-garment-workers-thats-good-for-the-u-s-bad-for-poor-countries-1518797631.
“The use of new technologies”: “Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development,” World Bank, September 20, 2017, www.worldbank.org/en/topic/competitiveness/publication/trouble-in-the-making-the-future-of-manufacturing-led-development.
the percentage of jobs threatened by automation: World Bank Development Report 2016, cited in “Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used to Be,” by Citi GPS and the University of Oxford, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/reports/Citi_GPS_Technology_Work_2.pdf.
China increased its annual purchase: Adam Minter, “China Has a Robot Problem,” Bloomberg, June 8, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-09/china-has-a-robot-problem.
South Korea already had an average: World Robotics Report 2016, Worldwide Distribution of Industrial Robots, ifr.org/img/uploads/Executive_Summary_WR_Industrial_Robots_20161.pdf.
thanks to a universal basic income: Raya Bidshahri, “Is a Universal Basic Income a Solution to Tech Unemployment?” June 26, 2017, singularityhub.com/2017/06/26/is-universal-basic-income-a-solution-to-tech-unemployment/#sm.00000rt8utaosce8tsev3hnaezwgj.
“Of course, these social woes”: Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, “Human Work in the Robotic Future: Policy for the Age of Automation,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-06-13/human-work-robotic-future.
Regalia told me that: Fernandino Regalia, interview with the author, November 17, 2017.
“charitable donations activate”: Rachel Jones, “It’s Good to Give,” Nature Reviews 7, December 2006.
“being generous, being altruistic”: Facundo Manes, interview with the author, January 29, 2018.
“The human worker”: Kevin J. Delaney, “The Robot That Takes Your Job Should Pay Taxes, Says Bill Gates,” Quartz, qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/.
there is already a labor market: “Artificial Intelligence Will Create New Kinds of Work,” The Economist, August 26, 2017.
Upwork.com, based in Silicon Valley: “53 Million Americans Now Freelance, New Study Finds,” September 3, 2014, www.upwork.com/press/2014/09/03/53-million-americans-now-freelance-new-study-finds-2/.
many social media content moderators: “Artificial Intelligence Will Create New Kinds of Work.”
“My generation had it easy”: Thomas L. Friedman, “Need a Job? Invent It,” New York Times, March 30, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/opinion/sunday/friedman-need-a-job-invent-it.html.
between 75 and 80 percent of the labor market: Peter Miscovich, “The Future Is Automated. Here’s How You Can Prepare for It,” World Economic Forum, January 12, 2017, www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/the-future-is-automated-here-s-how-we-can-prepare-for-it/.
“We’re the producers”: Noam Scheiber, “The Pop-Up Employer: Build a Team, Do the Job, Say Goodbye,” New York Times, July 12, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/07/12/business/economy/flash-organizations-labor.html.
“There is some evidence”: Ibid.
“I tell them the best thing they can do”: Benjamin Pring, telephone interview with the author, December 4, 2017.
“When you and I started working”: Ibid.
“people will have more time”: Ibid.
“I’ve been on stage at the Met”: Jane E. Brody, “Reinventing Yourself,” New York Times, March 14, 2016, well.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/03/14/reinventing-yourself/.
Currently, only 15 percent: “Independent Work: Choice, Necessity, and the Gig Economy,” McKinsey Global Institute, October 2016, www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Employment%20and%20Growth/Independent%20work%20Choice%20necessity%20and%20the%20gig%20economy/Independent-Work-Choice-necessity-and-the-gig-economy-Executive-Summary.ashx.
more than 70 percent of people who work independently: “Independent Work: Choice, Necessity, and the Gig Economy.”
the percentage of people working in agriculture: “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” McKinsey Global Institute, December 2017, www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-December-6-2017.ashx.
If we just take into account children: Max Roser, “Life Expectancy,” www.ourworldindata.org.
In 2010, obesity killed: Yuval Noah Harari, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow (New York: HarperCollins, 2017), 16.
Nathan Rothschild, the wealthiest man: Max Roser, “Economic Growth,” www.ourworldindata.org.
Today, in developed nations: Max Roser, “Infant Mortality,” www.ourworldindata.org.
In the United States and most European nations: Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Rise of Education,” www.ourworldindata.org.
While there was just one democracy: Max Roser, “Democracy,” www.ourwoldindata.org.
During the twentieth century: Harari, Homo Deus, 25.
In the 1920s, many people: Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, quoted by Bill Gates in “My New Favorite Book of All Time,” January 26, 2018, www.gatesnotes.com.
